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Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Rasmussen Nails Florida Poll

Rasmussen Nails Florida Poll

Scott Rasmussen Is On A Roll

By Dell Hill

A look back, for a moment, at the polling reports that everyone relies on to gauge the various state primary races.

I’ve slammed pollsters to the mat on a number of occasions and have lauded a few, too.  They’re not all crooked.  They don’t all favor the person or political party signing the check, especially during the primary/caucus season.  Case in point; Scott Rasmussen - an independent public opinion pollster since 1994.  Rasmussen is certainly one of the more prominent names in polling and we’re going to take a closer look at his Florida primary polling to find out just how accurate the end result really was.

As always, you’re encouraged to read and analyze this information for yourself by clicking right here.  

Scott Rasmussen

Here’s what Rasmussen published just hours before the Florida primary voting took place:

“The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Wednesday night, shows Romney with 39% support to Gingrich’s 31%.  Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earns 12%, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with nine percent (9%).  Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.”

The final results - according to Fox News - showed Mitt Romney winning with 46% of the vote - 7% fewer than the Rasmussen poll.  Finishing a distant second was Newt Gingrich with 32% - 1% better than the Rasmussen poll.  In third was Rick Santorum with 13% - 1% better than Rasmussen’s poll.  And finishing fourth was Ron Paul with 7% - 2% lower than the Rasmussen poll.

With the exception of the Romney total, Rasmussen was right on the money with the order of finish and within a whisker of perfection on the other three vote totals.  When you factor in the margin of error (plus or minus 3%), Rasmussen nailed it.  Remember, too, the 11% of the electorate who preferred a different candidate and/or was undecided at the time of the poll, which lends itself nicely to the numbers projected as well as the final outcome.

“The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports.  The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.  Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.”

The Rasmussen poll was equally accurate - if not more so - in the polling information released prior to the South Carolina primary, as well.

In light of his almost perfect record thus far, I’m going to continue reporting and reviewing the Rasmussen Reports as the races heat up and the general election season begins in earnest.  

I hope to be speaking with Scott during the course of these historic nomination and election events, to give you more in-depth analysis of his poll findings.  I hope you’ll be watching for those posts.

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