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Monday, October 24, 2011

Obama’s Bad Economy = 43.5% Of 2012 Vote

Obama’s Bad Economy = 43.5% Of 2012 Vote

Computer Models Projecting Landslide Loss

By Dell Hill

If this computer model turns out to be accurate, President Barack Obama would lose his bid for re-election in a huge landslide.  43.5% of the vote would give the winner a 56.5% win, for a spread of a whopping 13 percentage points!

Check out this early prognostication from The Enterprise Blog.

“Economic consulting firm IHS Global Insight thinks the economy may well sink President’s Obama’s reelection effort, at least according to its forecasting model:
Based on the expected state of the economy, President Obama faces an uphill battle to win reelection in 2012. …

Over the years, statistical attempts to explain and predict U.S. presidential election results have yielded two overarching themes.  First, Americans tend to vote their pocketbooks.  If the economy is growing strongly and unemployment is low, the incumbent party has a very good chance of retaining office.  When the economy is faltering, U.S. voters will more likely vote for change.  Second, Americans tend to favor an incumbent president running for reelection.  If the economy is weak enough, however, an incumbent president can lose, as Jimmy Carter learned in 1980 and George H. W. Bush did in 1992.

Based on the likely state of the economy in 2012, President Obama faces a steep uphill task to secure reelection.  Based upon our forecast for the economy, our election equation projects just a 43.5% share of the two-party vote for the president, i.e., a heavy defeat.

Read the rest of this report by clicking on this link.

Quite honestly, it would not surprise me to see Obama’s re-election dream dashed by a tsunami.  And a 13 percent margin of loss would be just that - a tsunami.

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