Dell's Original Uncoverage Logo by Antonio F. Branco, Comically Incorrect

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

No Surprises In New Hampshire - It’s Romney In a Walk

No Surprises In New Hampshire - It’s Romney In a Walk

Dems To Call It A Loss?

By Dell Hill

The polls certainly were NOT spot on in Iowa, predicting about half right, half wrong voting results across the board.  This week, it’s on to the Granite State of New Hampshire and Rasmussen sees my neighbors to the east voting quite heavily for Mitt Romney.  No surprise there.  Romney was expected to win New Hampshire, and win it big.

Mitt Romney, the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, remains well ahead of his nearest rival in Rasmussen Reports’ final survey of the New Hampshire Republican Primary race.

Romney earns 37% support, with Texas Congressman Ron Paul a distant second with 17% of the vote in the latest telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters taken Sunday night.  Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman is now in third with 15%, up slightly from 12% late last week.

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, coming off his photo finish with Romney in last week’s Iowa caucuses, picks up 13% of the vote, unchanged from the previous survey.  Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich also has made a modest gain, moving from eight percent (8%) support among likely primary voters last week to 12% now.  

Perry, who is counting on the January 21 South Carolina Primary to determine the fate of his candidacy, remains in the cellar here with one percent (1%). Another one percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.”

Dell’s Bottom Line:

Don’t look now, but Mitt Romney is edging ever closer to running the table to secure a first-ballot nomination at the Republican convention.  Obviously, his prospects in New Hampshire are excellent and a win in South Carolina would just about put a lock on it.

Meanwhile, over at the Democrat headquarters, Debbie Wasserman Schultz made an appearance on WBZ’s morning show to try to argue that anything short of a majority for Romney in New Hampshire was a failure.

Literally an impossible result, given the number of candidates still attracting votes.  In fact, 40% in a primary with this many participants, would be seen by independent observers as a landslide win.  A 40% victory is often difficult in just a three candidate race, so the spin masters at the DNC are hard at work trying to make a huge win look like a defeat by moving the bar up into uncharted territory.

Rick Santorum may also head for South Carolina maintaining at least some of his Iowa momentum.  New Hampshire voters have taken note of him and his 13% (coming at the expense of Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich) would be seen as “fairly good” as the candidates head to a warmer climate.

South Carolina probably won’t be as friendly.  Gingrich and Perry both hope to do well there and Santorum will face his strongest test yet.

Can anyone slow down the Romney Express?  At this point, with two states solidly in his column, he’d have to make a major mistake and he’s obviously well aware of that fact.  Romney went through the motions in both Iowa and New Hampshire, being ever so careful to avoid trouble.  Expect him to treat South Carolina in the same fashion.  

Romney has learned his lessons well over the years and hasn’t said anything yet that would give any of his opponents an opening to seriously attack his campaign.  If he continues to put himself above the fray and stays away from serious mud-slinging, it could be curtains for over half the field of contenders after South Carolina.

Of greater concern for Romney and the RNC is the reaction of Ron Paul and his disciples if and when Romney closes out the field.  In his most recent statements, Paul left the door open to a possible third party run in November - something that the Democrats would absolutely love to see.  In fact, such a move by Paul, would pretty much assure Barack Obama a second term.  The difference of just one percentage point in November will be critical and Paul knows that for a fact.

Just how much support Ron Paul has is questionable.  Much has been said and written about strong Democrat cross-over support for Paul in an effort to create havoc and divide the Republican vote.  To that end, the Paul campaign has succeeded.  In the end, however, his “out there somewhere” campaign is causing a massive headache.

Hat Tip - Ed Morrissey @HotAir

No comments:

Post a Comment