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Friday, January 20, 2012

Gingrich Surges In SC - Santorum Fading Fast - Rasmussen’s Final Poll Before SC Vote

Gingrich Surges In SC - Santorum Fading Fast

Rasmussen’s Final Poll Before SC Vote



By Dell Hill

Gingrich surges.  Romney now trails.  Paul holds steady.  Santorum brings up the rear.  That’s the very latest in poll results from Scott Rasmussen.  Here’s his report.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has now surged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final Rasmussen Reports survey of the South Carolina Republican Primary race with the vote just two days away.
           
The latest telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the state finds Gingrich with 33% support to Romney’s 31%. Two days ago, before the last debate, it was Romney by 14 percentage points.
           
Texas Congressman Ron Paul now runs third with 15% of the vote, followed by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum at 11%. Paul's support is steady while Santorum's support has dropped five points since Monday.  At the beginning of the month, just after Santorum’s strong showing in the Iowa caucuses, he ran second to Romney with 24% of the vote.




This South Carolina survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Dell’s Bottom Line:

If these numbers hold up, it’s great news for Newt Gingrich and horrible news for Rick Santorum.  Mitt Romney simply wants to make sure he finishes near the top because he’s expected to win in Florida by a wide margin.

And just as the internal polling by Rick Perry’s organization led to his ouster, the numbers on the wall are growing much clearer for Santorum.  

For Santorum to finish three percentage points out of third place would just about signal the end of his campaign, too.  South Carolina was not expected to be a strong Santorum State, but he figured to be at least third, behind Gingrich and Romney.  Rasmussen has him finishing a distant fourth.  Not good.

Polls don’t determine the final outcome, however.  Voters do.  So we’ll wait and see how close Mr. Rasmussen is on the South Carolina vote. 

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