Romney & Gingrich In Virtual Tie In Iowa - Gallup Poll
Conservatives Have Little To Like In Iowa Contest
By Dell Hill
a fool would try to accurately predict the outcome of the Iowa caucus
vote today. There are just too many underhanded political factors
involved, such as Democrats voting for Ron Paul, to gauge the climate
with any degree of accuracy. We also have the problem of “just too many
candidates” at this stage of the process. I strongly believe that once
the schedule shows South Carolina as the next stop, the field will be
narrowed by at least three...maybe four, and then the serious battle for
the nomination will begin.
isn’t a prediction. I honestly can’t get a handle on the political
climate that would allow me to comfortably predict anything. It’s a
suggestion as to what “probably will happen”.
Romney is the Republican elites choice and has been since day one.
He’ll finish in one of the top three spots, and then move on the New
Hampshire where his political muscle will become more than obvious. In
Iowa, Romney is just going through the motions, trying very hard not to
make any mistakes and allowing everyone else the chance to beat up on
each other. He’s actually done a good job of that, thus far.
Paul has an army of youthful volunteers - not to mention the Democrats
who intend to cross over and vote for him in the Republican caucus - and
they’ve made a big splash in Iowa that should be enough to garner a top
three spot. After Iowa, though, the future is nowhere near as bright
for the Texas Congressmen.
battle for the third spot in Iowa comes down to Newt Gingrich, and Rick
Santorum, with only Santorum showing any surge in popularity over the
final week of the campaign.
enjoyed a surge immediately after Herman Cain was forced out of the
race, but it was short-lived and many of those former Cain supporters
may well have opted to back Santorum.
Perry, who was seen as a viable alternative to Romney and Gingrich at
the start of his campaign, has fallen on serious hard times. His
performances in televised debate mode went from excellent to horrible -
often on the same night.
really believe there’s more to the story behind Perry’s downfall than
we’re being told by his campaign staff or Perry, himself. We’ve had
hints (from his wife) that recent back surgery left him in pain and he’s
reportedly taking enough pain medication(s) that he’s just “not
living in Texas for five years with Perry as Governor, I’d have to
think the pain medication report is accurate. He certainly hasn’t
sounded like the Rick Perry I remember in Texas. Not even close.
Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann trail the field by a substantial margin, and in the daily Gallup tracking poll, Perry could be lumped in with that duo as well.
of this writing, Gallup has Romney edging Gingrich 24% - 23% in what
would have to be called a toss up. Paul is a distant third with 13%,
Perry fourth with 7%, Santorum finishing strong at 6%, Bachmann at 5%
and Huntsman with just 2%. The “other” category beats Huntsman with 3%.
would not surprise me to see Santorum trade places with Perry and
finish fourth - or perhaps even higher, and the support for Ron Paul
could vault him past Gingrich.
matter what the outcome, these numbers simply do not bode well for
Conservatives. With just two exceptions, there isn’t a true
Conservative in the top tier. Those two exceptions are Bachmann and
Perry, and neither is in an enviable position.
Is it time for the elderly blogger to issue an endorsement?
a chance. I could easily argue “for” and “against” every single
candidate listed. This entire process smells sooooo very much like 2008
it’s almost sickening. From what I’ve seen and heard thus far, it will
be “hold your nose and vote” time once again in November.