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Thursday, January 5, 2012

Romney Leading Paul Better Than 2 to 1 In New Hampshire

Romney Leading Paul Better Than 2 to 1 In New Hampshire

Granite State Voters Have Their Say In Just Five Days

By Dell Hill

H/T - Ed Morrissey

My position on commissioned political polls is fairly well known.  I don’t put much stock in them at all.  Over the years, I’ve noticed a distinct trend for the poll results to favor the person signing the check.  Having said that, there are some fairly independent - and therefore accurate polls that I’ll depend on from time to time.  Such is the case with the most recent poll conducted by Suffolk University of Boston, Massachusetts.  Hot Air’s Ed Morrissey gives it an introduction.

Mitt Romney - Campaign ‘12 Frontrunner

“Suffolk University produces the first of the polls from New Hampshire after Mitt Romney’s razor-thin win over Rick Santorum in the Iowa caucuses, and … nothing much has changed.  Romney continues to lead by more than 2-1 over his nearest competitor in this tracking poll series, the same as he did in the two days preceding the caucuses this week.  All of the changes are within the margin of error.

Here are the numbers today, with Tuesday’s reported numbers in parentheses:”

  • Romney – 41% (43%)
  • Paul – 18 (16)
  • Santorum – 8 (5)
  • Huntsman 7 (10)
  • Gingrich – 7 (9)
  • Perry – >1 (2)

For more details and Ed’s learned review, click right here.

Dell’s Bottom Line:

As you can plainly see, Mitt Romney has an iron-grip lock on the Granite State primary, which is just five days away.  It would take a very serious mistake by Romney for any of his challengers to even make a dent in his New Hampshire lead.  And even if there was more time to campaign, it would still be a tough row to hoe.  Throw in the size of the field divvying up the votes and you can pretty easily forecast a big win for the local favorite.

I would think the most important vote total in New Hampshire will be the final percentage gleaned by Rick Santorum, fresh off of his grand showing in Iowa.  And Santorum will need to finish a few clicks higher than 8% in order to maintain his momentum going to South Carolina.  In order for that to happen, some other candidate(s) would have to lose a few percentage points.  If the loss is spread around, few tears will be shed.  However, if just one candidate suffers greatly, it could be curtains on their 2012 presidential hopes. 

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