Romney - Santorum In Classic Iowa Finish - Perry & Bachmann Pack It In

Romney - Santorum In Classic Iowa Finish

Perry & Bachmann Pack It In


By Dell Hill

Is it over yet?

Yes.  Yes, it is.  The Iowa Republican caucus voting finally ended at 2:49 AM with Mitt Romney being declared the winner by just eight votes over surging Rick Santorum.  The incredibly slim eight vote margin actually gives both Romney and Santorum the right to declare victory in a hard fought, often contentious Iowa campaign.


Jan. 3, 2011: Republican candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum address supporters after the Iowa caucuses.

No matter the personalities involved, this has to go down as one of the tightest political races in many years - maybe, ever.  As late as 2:06 AM, Santorum held a four vote lead over Romney.  Romney picked up 12 votes over the final 1% of precincts counted to win by just eight votes!

Ron Paul finished third in what has to be a slight let down.  Yes, it was a top-three finish, but Paul and his supporters were looking for one of the top two spots - preferably #1 - but stayed about five thousand votes behind the front runners over the final three hours of vote counting.

When you factor in what most feel is about five thousand Democrats who registered as Republicans just to influence the Iowa vote, you get the idea that Ron Paul’s campaign simply does not have the muscle it claims.  Surprising that he finished 3rd?  Yes.  But, compared to the drum beating and public predictions of victory, this result exposes Paul’s campaign as being nowhere near as popular as the Texas Congressmen would have us believe.

The Newt Gingrich campaign finished a very disappointing fourth, with just 14% of the Iowa vote.  The fourth place finish is bad, and the 14% vote total makes Gingrich the first big loser in Campaign ‘12.

Texas Governor Rick Perry suffered the first loss of his political career with a dismal fifth place and just 11% of the vote.  Perry told his followers he was cancelling his scheduled events for next week and will reassess his campaign options.  Most observers think “he’s done”; I can’t disagree.  Being shellacked 22%-11% by Congressman Ron Paul has to leave a serious mark on Perry’s ambitions.
 
Michele Bachmann was simply humiliated by Iowa voters.  Her 5% vote total caused the suspension of her campaign and totally flies in the face of the candidate who won the Iowa straw poll.  

Jon Huntsman didn’t record a thousand votes and why he’s even mentioned here is beyond me.  He needs to get out of the way and the media need to focus on the real, viable candidates.

In a post here yesterday, I passed along the famous Gallup Poll results that predicted a Romney win over Newt Gingrich.  Obviously, that was off by half.  Yes, Romney won, but not over Newt Gingrich.  In fact, Gallup wasn’t even close to correct, which should cause everyone to seriously question/doubt even the big name pollsters.

Here’s the money graph:

“As of this writing, Gallup has Romney edging Gingrich 24% - 23% in what would have to be called a toss up.  Paul is a distant third with 13%, Perry fourth with 7%, Santorum finishing strong at 6%, Bachmann at 5% and Huntsman with just 2%.  The “other” category beats Huntsman with 3%.”

The actual finish was:  Romney - 25%, Santorum - 25%, Paul - 22%, Gingrich - 14%, Perry - 11% and Bachmann - 5%.  Huntsman didn’t come close to 3%.  A mix of serious “right” and “wrong” final results from the great Gallup Poll.

Now it’s on to New Hampshire.  A serious test for Santorum, for certain.  The big money is on a Romney landslide win in the Granite State and Santorum needs to do everything possible to keep his lofty, first round position.  Gingrich needs to step it up big time or risk being an also-ran after just two events.  

Something to watch.

Most observers feel strongly that Santorum was lucky to avoid major media coverage right up until voting day in Iowa.  His outstanding finish there guarantees the media hounds will be released immediately and the “gotcha” questions are being prepared as we speak.  His voting record - which isn’t all that conservative - is bound to attract major scrutiny.

Interesting to note.

Santorum endorsed Romney over John McCain in the 2008 campaign.

McCain is said to be endorsing Romney today in New Hampshire.

How the worm turns!